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Is The Market Too High Like Everyone Says?

The ValueAligned Model portfolio (VAP) was up +22.8% in 2021, while the S&P 500 Index was up +28.1%, including dividends reinvested into the index. In the first three weeks of this year the VAP is down -7.6% while the S&P 500 is down -7.7%. On January 11, we...

Irrational Exuberance Speech 25 Years Ago

The stock market is up 6x since the "Irrational Exuberance Speech." The ValueAligned Model portfolio (VAP) is up +23.0% as of Wednesday, December 29, 2021, while the S&P 500 Index is up +29.4%. That includes all dividends reinvested into the index and the VAP We...

Inflation’s Back—And That’s Why We Own Stocks

At the close on Friday, the NASDAQ Composite Index was down -6.1% and the S&P 500 was down -3.5%, from their recent record highs. The 10-year Treasury yield, which was 1.67% as recently as the week of Thanksgiving, was yielding 1.35% at the close on Friday. Oil...

Hong Kong Retail Sales Takes a Nose Dive

What happens when your stores are blocked with protestors every weekend. Hong Kong retail sales have tanked since protests began.  In the months leading up, retail sales had been contracting year-over-year for four consecutive months. The reading for May came in at...

Dumb Money Back to Confident and Fear Missing Out

Be careful out there. Risk is rising as the DUMB money is on the loose. Jason Goepfert's blog, Sentimentrader.com, keeps you up to date on how confident DUMB and SMART money are at a given moment. When DUMB money is relatively confident, measured as the red line below...

STOCK MELT UP COMING FROM BOND SELLING

Higher treasury yields = selling of treasuries.  Selling of treasuries = proceeds that typically get reinvested in equities.  Reallocation of funds from the bond market to the stock market = exactly what we've been witnessing for the past several months, a...

POSITIVE EARNINGS ESTIMATE REVISIONS HIT TEN YEAR HIGH

Chart of the Day:We’ve been noting recently that bullish sentiment from the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) has finally exceeded 50% after nearly three years below that level.  In today’s Chart of the Day, we wanted to highlight another sentiment...

MOST HEDGE FUNDS DON’T CARE ABOUT CARRIED INTEREST LOOPHOLE

Private Equity and Real Estate Funds Benefit - Not Most Hedge Funds There is not a "carried interest loophole" for hedge fund managers! Hedge fund managers pay the same tax rates on long-term capital gains as everybody else - 23.8%. Most people consider it a loophole...

Why is everyone so afraid? Another cluster of DJIA Records.

Chart of the Day:It is the dog days of August, so we wouldn’t fault anyone for not noticing that the DJIA has been up for nine straight trading days (through Friday) and has seen record high closes on each of the last eight.  As shown in the red lines of the chart...