“I look to the future because that’s where I’m going to spend the rest of my life.” —George Burns The stock market is now up more than 11% in 2021, but we could have a normal 15% or so drop at anytime. Here are four bullish statistics that Ryan Detrick, chief market...
Dumb Money Back to Confident and Fear Missing Out
Be careful out there. Risk is rising as the DUMB money is on the loose. Jason Goepfert's blog, Sentimentrader.com, keeps you up to date on how confident DUMB and SMART money are at a given moment. When DUMB money is relatively confident, measured as the red line below...
Lemmings Take the Plunge Even as Stocks Make New Highs
Investors escape from stock funds in favor of bond funds this past spring. “More than $38 billion of investor assets flowed out of equity long-term funds and ETFs in the five weeks between April 18 and May 22 [per the ICI], while nearly $33 billion flowed into...
EATING OUT EXCEEDS EATING IN FOR THE THIRD MONTH IN A ROW
EATING OUT EXCEEDS EATING IN FOR THE THIRD MONTH IN A ROW Based on today's Census Bureau report on April retail sales, consumer spending at "Food Services and Drinking Places" (restaurants and bars, see red line) was greater than grocery store sales (blue line) in...
The Latest Giant Sucking Sound – US Stops Subsidizing Global Growth
The US stock market outperforms the rest of the world as the US begins removing subsidies. Forever, it seems, our macroeconomists and high-level policy experts have explained that the "free trade" deals they and their acolytes negotiated would promote economic...
The Flood of Money Into Passive ETFs, Mutual Funds Has Slowed
Lifetime returns are mostly about investor behavior. Save while you are working, invest in stocks of great companies and don't sell in a panic or buy at the top. “Passive investment is now growth-tilted, momentum chasing, biased toward popular-weighted...
Dr. Ed’s Blog: High Noise-to-Signal Ratio In Stock Market
THANKS TO TAX CUTS High Noise-to-Signal Ratio In Stock MarketThe 10-year US Treasury bond yield edged up above 3.00% yesterday. This widely feared level didn’t faze the S&P 500, which rose 1.0% on Wednesday to 2697.79. Rising oil prices, in response to Trump’s...
LAFFER CURVE STRIKES AGAIN: TAX RECEIPTS UP AS RATES GO DOWN
PERSONAL TAX RECEIPTS 12% HIGHER IN APRIL Today's April Treasury report showed that April tax receipts not only set an all-time record, but were fully 12% higher than last April's receipts. People and corporations had been postponing income and accelerating deductions...
BIGGEST DROP IN SMALL BUSINESS WORRY ON TAXES
In the case of Taxes, the percentage of businesses citing that issue as their biggest problem has plummetted ever since the Tax Reform bill was signed into law. According to the NFIB, it hasn’t been cited by this few a percentage of businesses since 1982! Source:...
FANGs: Growth Investments Expensed on the Income Statement
The media is obsessed with supposedly bubble-like valuations of the FANG stocks—Facebook, Amazon, Netflix and Google (Alphabet). The FANG companies account for over 7% of the S&P 500 and sell at a weighted average P/E of 39 times consensus 2017 earnings. In our...