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Hong Kong Retail Sales Takes a Nose Dive

What happens when your stores are blocked with protestors every weekend. Hong Kong retail sales have tanked since protests began.  In the months leading up, retail sales had been contracting year-over-year for four consecutive months. The reading for May came in at...

Dumb Money Back to Confident and Fear Missing Out

Be careful out there. Risk is rising as the DUMB money is on the loose. Jason Goepfert's blog, Sentimentrader.com, keeps you up to date on how confident DUMB and SMART money are at a given moment. When DUMB money is relatively confident, measured as the red line below...

Lemmings Take the Plunge Even as Stocks Make New Highs

Investors escape from stock funds in favor of bond funds this past spring. “More than $38 billion of investor assets flowed out of equity long-term funds and ETFs in the five weeks between April 18 and May 22 [per the ICI], while nearly $33 billion flowed into...

Real Yields versus Yield Curve Slope

The investment world is fixated on China trade wars a.k.a. tariffs, rapidly declining interest rates, sky-high stock prices, inverted yield curves, negative interest rates and looming recessions around the world. No one can predict the future and investment climate...

EATING OUT EXCEEDS EATING IN FOR THE THIRD MONTH IN A ROW

EATING OUT EXCEEDS EATING IN FOR THE THIRD MONTH IN A ROW Based on today's Census Bureau report on April retail sales, consumer spending at "Food Services and Drinking Places" (restaurants and bars, see red line) was greater than grocery store sales (blue line) in...

The Flood of Money Into Passive ETFs, Mutual Funds Has Slowed

Lifetime returns are mostly about investor behavior. Save while you are working, invest in stocks of great companies and don't sell in a panic or buy at the top.     “Passive investment is now growth-tilted, momentum chasing, biased toward popular-weighted...

TRUCKS KEEP ON HAULING MORE AND MORE STUFF

US Trucks Hauled Almost +8% More Tonnage in the Last Year     The nations' extensive fleet of trucks has hauled almost 8% more tonnage in year ending July '18. Since just before the November 2016 election, truck tonnage is up 15%. This is powerful evidence...

Dr. Ed’s Blog: High Noise-to-Signal Ratio In Stock Market

THANKS TO TAX CUTS High Noise-to-Signal Ratio In Stock MarketThe 10-year US Treasury bond yield edged up above 3.00% yesterday. This widely feared level didn’t faze the S&P 500, which rose 1.0% on Wednesday to 2697.79. Rising oil prices, in response to Trump’s...

LAFFER CURVE STRIKES AGAIN: TAX RECEIPTS UP AS RATES GO DOWN

PERSONAL TAX RECEIPTS 12% HIGHER IN APRIL Today's April Treasury report showed that April tax receipts not only set an all-time record, but were fully 12% higher than last April's receipts. People and corporations had been postponing income and accelerating deductions...